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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It commonly functions as a form of apology. Sorry we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic improvement receives the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or merely the most shocking upset.

But the current field is distinctly different. The group of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference winners fading and recent underperformers ascending in unison. In an normal season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and fun season, he's competing with five other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the projected vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to create big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this isn't a typical season!

The area where his case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty after his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still