A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
