Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
